Assessing the Potential Tree Line and Suitable Areas for Afforestation in the Chong-Kemin National Park, Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

Although forests cover less than 5.6% of the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic, they are a valuable natural resource. With the increasing human settlement the mountain forests have been exploited for timber, fuel wood, and charcoal in recent years. These unsustainable land use practices, along with hay-making and over-grazing of cattle, sheep and goats, have resulted in a decline of the yields of forest products and the degradation of the natural regeneration. The long-term objective for the State Agency of Environmental Protection and Forestry of the Kyrgyz Republic is to increase the forest cover up to 6% by 2025 – 2030. Choosing only suitable areas for afforestation can be rather difficult under an arid, mostly continental influenced climate. This contribution aims to estimate the potential forest tree line and deviation from the current forest distribution with remote-sensing data as a basis for further afforestation planning. Using different spatial data (forest map, satellite images, digital terrain models, global irradiation, temperature and precipitation) the limits for forest growth are modelled in the Chong-Kemin National Park, Kyrgyz Republic. The gap between the potential tree line and the actual upper and lower forest line can be used as an indicator for a likely anthropogenic influence on today’s forest distribution.