Characterizing Urban Growth Pattern and its Drivers - Evidence from Four Border Cities in Northeastern Thailand

Abstract

Understanding the spatial relationships between urban growth patterns and underlying driving forces is important to better comprehend municipal expansion. Urban development was reviewed for four border cities in northeastern Thailand; Nong Khai, Bueng Kan, Nakhon Phanom and Mukdahan between 2002 and 2015. A logistic regression model and landscape metrics were used to identify significant explanatory factors of land use transition by observing each city over two time periods to characterize urban growth patterns and trends. Landscape dynamics revealed that accessibility resulting from local roads was the most significant driving factor for most cities during both time periods, followed by inter-city highway connections. The density of large and small water bodies in the metropolitan areas had minimal influence on urban growth, while some of the major and minor centers played an important role in urban expansion in a particular time period. The analysis showed that new developments had a tendency to occur within sub-districts with increased populations. Trends of urbanization in all four major cities showed a higher annual growth rate during the first than in the second period, with Bueng Kan experiencing the highest annual growth rate at 12.08 percent. Landscape metrics analysis results suggested that continuous urban expansion resulted in a more fragmented and complicated urban landscape, and improving the current land use plan was vital for the future development of all four border cities.