Urban Landuse changes Prediction by using a CA–Markov and Logistic Regression Analysis

Abstract

Phuket is the province with an island landscape and a world class tourist attraction. In the past, the development of the tourism and recreation industry has increased. This has resulted in a dramatic increase of the population and the rapid growth of the city. In this study, identify and analyze urban and built-up areas from land use and land cover (LULC) in 1995, 2002 and 2014. Furthermore, applying remote sensing (RS), geographic information system (GIS) data and logistic regression analysis (LRA) to find the correlation of driving factor spatial variation in determining change conditions. The results provide the possibility of a LULC change with cellular-automata (CA)-Markov and LRA, especially urban growth between 2014 and 2026 was increased 25,064.45 Rai (4,010.31 Hectare). LULC prediction in 2026 of urban land use change area based on an optimum geospatial model is strong result recommendation can bring an urban planning to solve any problems that may occur in the future.