Exploring the Effects of Land use Land Cover (LULC) Change on Menhir in 2053: Utilizing the Cellular Automata-Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) Algorithm: A Case Study of Menhir Tourist Site in Nagari Maek, Indonesia

Abstract

The construction of tourism facilities related to physical aspects triggers changes in land use. This research aims to model Land Use Land Cover (LULC) by 2053 and determine the influence of LULC on the existence of the menhir tourist attraction as the main object in historical tourism in Nagari Maek. The method used to produce LULC predictions is the CA-ANN model via the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS Desktop 2.18.11. The research results show that the 2023 prediction map has an accuracy value of 68.43 with a correctness percentage of 83.11458%. This means the resulting model is highly suitable, and the prediction results can be trusted. The LULC prediction for 2023 to 2053 results in significant land changes occurring in the dry land forests, which experienced a decrease of 6.75%, and plantations of 13.67%, while the increase occurred in the mixed plantations by 17.46%, rice fields 1.57% and built-up area 1.39%. If the LULC conversion is linked to the existence of menhirs (the main object in historical tourism), then by 2053, there will be a reduction from 30 sites to 24 menhir sites. Each site has a different number of menhirs, and there will be at least 20. The loss of 6 sites or 120 menhirs caused the inherent characteristic of Nagari Maek, as it was named as the Nagari of 1000 menhirs, to disappear.