Potential Surface Analysis in Urban Sustainability Planning: A Case Study in Mae Ka, Phayao, Thailand

Abstract

This study aimed to achieve three objectives: firstly, to analyze the urban growth around the Mae Ka community by examining the land use changes that occurred in 2001, 2011, and 2021; secondly, to identify the factors that affect the potential areas for development; and thirdly, to propose sustainable development guidelines for both the Mae Ka community and the surrounding areas. To accomplish this, the study employed Potential Surface Analysis (PSA) as a method for evaluating suitability and development potential. The study utilized Geographic Information System (GIS) to process three major factors: physical, infrastructural, and risk area factors. The overlay mapping technique was crucial in analyzing and classifying areas based on their potential for supporting the development plan for the Mae Ka community. The areas were divided into three categories: high potential areas, moderate potential areas, and low potential areas. The results of the analysis land use changes revealed that in 2001, 2011 and 2021, forest areas decreased by 11.74%, with a conversion to agricultural areas, build-up areas, and miscellaneous areas, resulting in a decrease from 149.92 square kilometers to 132.32 square kilometers. Furthermore, the results of the potential surface analysis using physical, infrastructural, and risk area factors demonstrated that the high potential areas constituted 23.74 square kilometers or 8.58%, the moderate potential areas comprised 64.39 square kilometers or 23.28%, the low potential areas covered 55.75 square kilometers or 20.16%, and the excluded areas, such as forest areas, reserved or preserved areas, and natural resource areas, accounted for 132.70 square kilometers or 47.98% of the total area. Based on the level of potential areas, recommendations for stable and sustainable land use plans, transportation plans, and infrastructure plans can be developed for Mae Ka in the near future.