A Comparative Assessment of the Poverty Incidence Situation in Mindanao, Philippines with Quantitative Evaluation of the Impact of Road Density

Abstract

This study investigates poverty incidence changes in Mindanao, Philippines, using the Small Area Estimation of poverty incidence data for 2018 and 2021. The General G analysis revealed clustering of hot and cold spots of poverty incidence in both periods. With sufficient evidence supporting the potential of the clustering of hot spots and cold spots clustering of poverty incidence, the Getis-Ord was applied which generated valuable maps that may be used for planning and policy development. A significant decrease in poverty incidence was observed in some areas in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, a significant increase occurred in several areas in Zamboanga Peninsula, while Davao Region seems to have consistent economic stability in terms of having relatively lower poverty incidence, for 2021. The impact of road expansions on poverty incidence is also examined. Geographical Weighted Regression shows that a higher road density could reduce the poverty incidence. However, the study cautions against solely relying on road infrastructure development as a solution given the varying coefficients in different locations as well as a low r-squared value. The study highlights the need for concerted efforts to address poverty in Mindanao, including expanding national and rural roads, promoting economic development through MSMEs and tourism, and addressing ongoing peace and order issues and anticipative efforts for natural disasters.