Urban Growth Dynamics of Special Region of Yogyakarta, Indonesia (1994–2024): Population Trends and Expansion Prediction

Abstract

The urban area of Yogyakarta (Indonesia) is observed to have experienced quite rapid development due to the changes in built-up land over the past three decades. The growth is motivated by population growth as well as increased educational activities and equitable access to infrastructure. Therefore, this study aims to understand the complex changes through two main objectives which include analyzing patterns of built-up land change from 1994 to 2025 and predicting the direction of urban development using Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (CA-Markov) method. Random Forest (RF) analysis was used to analyze the variations in land use and land cover (LULC) based on Landsat 5 TM, 7 ETM+, 8 OLI, and 9 OLI-2. These imageries were adopted to observe changes in LULC and the direction of urban development every 5 years. The results showed that NE direction experienced the most rapid development from 986 ha in 1994 to 7,648 ha in 2024. Logistic regression analysis further identified population as the main factor of land conversion (β = 1.673). Meanwhile, educational facilities had a large contribution to the pressure of vegetation change (β = −118.898), which may reflect the increasing demand for educational infrastructure accompanying population growth and urban expansion. The transportation network also showed that the city center and areas with high connectivity had reached a saturation point and the trend led to the tendency of new development shifting to peri-urban areas. Shannon entropy value reflected a change in urban development patterns with the growth observed to be concentrated at the start identified to have spread and become increasingly fragmented after 2014. Moreover, the simulations conducted using CA–Markov showed the possibility of future urban development continuing to move toward peri-urban areas in a northeast–northwest (NE-NW) direction. The combination of multitemporal Landsat, RF classification, regression analysis, and CA–Markov models produced a more comprehensive picture of urban development dynamics in Yogyakarta and also provides a scientific basis for policymakers regarding spatial utilization.